PARIS — As it turns out, the revolution will be televised.
People around the world had a front-row view of wanton violence in Paris over the weekend as Yellow Jackets protesters ransacked the Arc de Triomphe, looted shops along the Champs Elysées and torched cars along the swanky Grands Boulevards.
But for Emmanuel Macron, the images of destruction in central Paris are nothing short of devastating.
Not only do they undermine his attempts to remake France’s image as a cheerful “startup nation,” they also raise worrying questions about his administration’s ability to maintain order in the face of a grassroots movement that started out protesting a fuel tax and now has a list of 42 demands that range from retirement at 60 to abolishing homelessness.
Yellow Jackets protesters rally during a demonstration in front of a train station in northern France on December 1, 2018 | Francois Lo Presti/AFP via Getty Images
Distressingly for Macron, the movement seems to enjoy broad support. Despite 412 arrests and a falling number of demonstrators — they were down to 136,000 on December 1 from 280,000 on November 17 — a weekend survey showed that 72 percent of the French backed les gilets jaunes, versus just 27 percent who support Macron.
The situation is so volatile that Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, called off a planned visit to the French parliament on Tuesday.
In the circumstances, it would be easy to write off Macron as politically, if not institutionally, beaten. With the Yellow Jackets now calling for a third weekend of protests, the situation looks bad.
But Macron is still in power and, short of an extremely unlikely resignation, he will stay there until 2022. In the coming days he will need to find a way of dealing with the crisis that goes beyond inspecting the devastation and staying silent — one that starts to address the root causes of a social movement that is already being compared to the student riots of May 1968, albeit with neon vests instead of bell-bottom pants.
Here are some of the unenviable choices Macron faces, and how he might work his way through them:
1) Get his communications in order
Until not too long ago, Macron was known as a public relations wizard. Lately, however, his silver tongue has brought him more trouble than applause. His off-hand comments to a jobseeker about being able to “cross the street” and find a job look, in retrospect, like fuel for a raging fire of resentment. His speech on November 27, which was heavily anticipated as an antidote to the anger, did not stem the tide of outrage headed his way, au contraire.
It’s unlikely that Macron can fix the crisis with a speech. Many of the Yellow Jacket protesters do not seem interested in high-minded rhetoric. Yet the French president could do better than his current approach, which has been to avoid any public comment about the damage. Macron should get talking, and when he does it would worth drawing inspiration from Hollywood crisis communications tactics, which usually advise recognizing the scale of the problem without any attempt to minimize it. Only once Macron has shown he grasps the depth of rage in the French hinterland, how long it’s been brewing and his own role in it, can he hope to put out the fire that les gilets jaunes have started.
2) Reclaim the upper hand on security
In the wake of violence in Paris, French officials weighed in declaring a state of emergency, only to quickly dismiss the idea. The mechanism, used during mass riots in 2005 and again after the terror attacks in Paris in November 2015, would allow the government to preserve order on the streets. The failure of police to contain the demonstrations and keep public thoroughfares running has tainted the image of a reinvigorated French economy touted by Macron.
Criticism of such a move would come from far and wide. Yet the alternative is just as perilous. A beefed-up security apparatus could mean using more rubber bullets, teargas and water cannons to disperse protesters. That, in turn, raises the risk of a protester getting killed. A dead protester would achieve instant martyrdom, cornering the government and bringing the movement to new levels of support and outrage.
French riot police witness Yellow Jackets demonstration on December 1, 2018 in Tours, France | Guillaume Souvant/AFP via Getty Images
So Macron needs to find a middle-ground between martial law and chaos. One way to do that would be to focus on the violent troublemakers, making a clear distinction between them and the other protesters. Meanwhile, Macron should deploy gendarmes on major thoroughfares to stop illegal blockages and limit access to the city on days when protesting is expected. Inside Paris, police could set up checkpoints to ensure protesters are not carrying weapons to rallies. Even the announcement of such measures would likely have a cooling effect.
If the police still take orders from Macron, that is.
3) Offer strategic concessions
The French president could, of course, satisfy the Yellow Jackets’ main gripe by backing away from the carbon tax hike. Sporting a Yellow Jacket (oh yes), he could announce an indefinite suspension of the tax and even accompany it with a giveaway subsidy for those in rural areas. Doing so would make Macron appear hypocritical and perhaps frustrate ecological groups, but it could also show him to be a French president who listens and is unafraid to admit a mistake.
The risk would be creating a precedent that could dog future reforms. Once shown that high-profile protests can succeed in sinking a government action, other groups could say their complaints have gone unanswered — and take to the streets. Trying to satisfy each subset of the public affected by a policy change could result in an escalating game of whack-a-mole, where filling one budget hole creates another.
Macron could also, if he follows the advice of Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, “accelerate cutting taxes.” Doing so within European-assigned budgetary constraints creates pressure, however, to also cut spending. And budget cuts thus far have not sat very well with French voters.
4) Put more experienced ministers in charge
Macron has not shied away from the occasional Cabinet reshuffle. He most recently shook up his team of ministers in mid-October, promoting loyalists while preserving the political and gender balance of his government. In early September, the French president also restructured his communications team. A thoughtful Cabinet re-do could show the Yellow Jackets that Macron is heeding their concerns while also implicitly assign culpability to the ministerial departed.
In light of the failure of police to prevent rioting, the knives could be out for Interior Minister Christophe Castaner, a central Macron backer and ex-government spokesperson, who lacks the experience of a seasoned law-and-order functionary. Macron could also target Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, the instigator of a speed-limit-reduction that served as a Yellow Jackets precursor, who would represent a major scalp to the protesters. Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, a consensus figure with substantial governing experience, could be in line for a promotion.
5) Divide and conquer opponents
Another possible approach is to seize the crisis as a moment for leadership by coming together with opposition parties to force through legislative solutions. In this vein, Macron has been calling for Socialist Party leaders and their right-leaning Les Républicains counterparts to help draft compromise measures. Inviting the “old world” of French politics back to the limelight could only deepen the perception that Macron has become the de facto establishment, after running a campaign based on a new political order.
Meanwhile, far-right leader Marine Le Pen and far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon have demanded the dissolution of parliament as being necessary for beginning talks. For Macron, the prospect of a new election, which would endanger the absolutely majority of his La République en Marche party, seems to be a clear no.